Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 2 yards (33-D.Connors; 36-M.Pulley).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.09 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model