4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model