4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model