Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 15 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model