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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 93

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to PHI 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at LA 17 for 41 yards (48-O.Speights).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.77 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 93, worth -5.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model