Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
How It Works → · How the go/kick/punt math works →
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Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 72%
(14:55) 38-C.Ryland 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%
(6:54) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at ARI 13 for -10 yards (55-D.Stills).
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Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:14) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(7:29) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%
(2:44) 12-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LAC 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 16 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:18) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to ARI 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-D.Duvernay.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 71%
(14:04) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:28) 16-J.Scott punt is BLOCKED by 80-S.Fehoko, Center-47-J.Harris, recovered by LAC-30-A.Ingold at LAC 3.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 60%
(4:51) 12-B.Gillikin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 18 at the 77 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 28%
(4:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-D.Njoku to LAC 38 for 15 yards (2-W.Johnson; 28-A.Wingard). Penalty on LAC-83-D.Njoku, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 82%
(2:37) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 62 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 86-O.Gadsden to LAC 44 for 6 yards (2-W.Johnson; 1-Ma.Wilson).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:58) 19-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to ATL 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to PIT 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 32 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).
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Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%
(8:34) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 19 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(4:49) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to PIT 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%
(12:31) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%
(7:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to PIT 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 14 for 5 yards (28-M.Ford).
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Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to ATL 41, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to PIT 45 for 14 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%
(2:38) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 44Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%
(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 19-C.Johnston pass incomplete short left [28-M.Ford].
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Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%
(10:58) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 20 for 7 yards (41-P.Wilson; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at ATL 19.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%
(6:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 47%
(4:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf (26-C.Henderson).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 78%
(1:55) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(:13) 19-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 24 for 13 yards (44-C.Bruener).
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%
(10:39) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 65%
(7:04) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 43 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%
(4:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
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Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester to BAL 38 for 10 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 46-L.Rhodes).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 99%
(12:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 6-J.Lane.
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Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(9:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester to BAL 34 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).
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Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:39) 30-R.Eckley punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.
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Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 72%
(:59) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(12:57) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to IND 16, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 39Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 65%
(8:00) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 38%
(4:31) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-J.Downs. PENALTY on IND-33-K.Harris, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8.
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Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 23 for 13 yards (44-T.Chambers).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 27 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%
(4:13) 33-T.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
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Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%
(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at BAL 40 for -9 yards (24-M.Starks).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 76%
(11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%
(7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EPp(convert) 60%
(2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 20 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play.
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Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%
(:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%
(10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 39Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 65%
(6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 13 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(4:22) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CHI 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to CHI 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 44 for 23 yards (48-T.Incoom). PENALTY on CAR-84-M.Evans, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 79Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 75%
(10:35) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 21 for no gain (21-N.Scott; 97-B.Brown). (Virtual Measurement).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 49%
(7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 22Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%
(5:24) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%
(2:39) 10-R.Fitzgerald 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:08) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(11:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to CAR 25, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn to CAR 42 for 17 yards (23-R.Johnson; 45-B.Gardner).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 64%
(:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to JAX 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 11-P.Washington to JAX 26 for -5 yards (50-R.Sunahara).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to JAX 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 83%
(9:13) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 35%
(4:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to JAX 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:45) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 30 for 10 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 80-Q.Morris).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 98%
(8:34) 25-A.Szmyt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%
(1:52) 39-C.Little 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 29Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 83%
(10:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 21 for 8 yards (27-C.Ransaw, 47-D.Gardeck). FUMBLES (47-D.Gardeck), RECOVERED by JAX-91-A.Armstead at JAX 22. 91-A.Armstead to JAX 24 for 2 yards (44-H.Fannin). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 22 for 7 yards (27-C.Ransaw).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 16Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%
(8:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at JAX 22 for -6 yards (50-B.Combs).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 61 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(4:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 12-D.Boston.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 49%
(12:59) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 51%
(2:05) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to NYG 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(12:38) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to DAL 15, Center-58-B.Mann, downed by NYG-54-M.Harrison.
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Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 58%
(11:35) (Shotgun) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).
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Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(2:51) 14-M.Araiza punts 55 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:40) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 51 yards to KC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 29 for 7 yards (45-N.Adkins).
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Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 21%
(11:14) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-22-J.Canady.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 64%
(9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to KC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
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Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(6:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 63 yards to DEN 4, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 23 for 19 yards (31-J.Bassa; 88-J.Briningstool).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 72%
(4:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(:58) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to KC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio. PENALTY on KC-22-J.Canady, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 60Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(12:53) 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 42%
(9:56) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to KC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-13-P.Bryant.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(7:38) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(3:20) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(13:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to KC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 81-N.Remigio to KC 27 for 15 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 34-J.Skinner). PENALTY on KC-13-C.Allen, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at KC 12.
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Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(7:08) 14-M.Araiza punts 59 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims ran ob at DEN 31 for 22 yards (47-B.VanSumeren). PENALTY on DEN-6-T.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 26.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 71 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 39%
(4:41) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (20-N.Williams) [56-G.Karlaftis].
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 GB 4th & 12 at the 41Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 60%
(12:16) 28-T.Smack 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(8:13) 19-B.Thorson punts 36 yards to GB 19, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.
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Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%
(1:42) 16-W.Reichard 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%
(13:56) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%
(10:40) 19-B.Thorson punts 34 yards to GB 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.
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Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 40%
(8:28) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIN 4, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-16-B.Melton.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:08) 19-B.Thorson punts 43 yards to MIN 48, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-S.Moore to MIN 36 for 12 yards (42-A.DePaola; 29-Jac.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(12:09) 19-D.Whelan punts 22 yards to MIN 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
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Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:07) 19-B.Thorson punts 48 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at GB 13 for 5 yards (41-J.Golday). ** Injury Update: GB-81-J.Whyle has returned to the game.
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Q3 GB 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(5:12) 28-T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%
(13:17) 10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 12 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%
(1:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 23-S.Moore.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%
(10:38) 48-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
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Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%
(4:29) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (40-W.Gay; 23-Z.Anderson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 33 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 56%
(14:22) 48-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LV 10, Center-46-T.Addington. 19-M.Benson to LV 33 for 23 yards (46-T.Addington).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 29Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%
(10:26) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%
(4:12) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: MIA-46-T.Addington has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 97%
(2:38) 14-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%
(:11) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 58%
(14:15) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(12:32) 48-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LV 33, Center-46-T.Addington. 19-M.Benson to LV 45 for 12 yards (46-T.Addington).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 33%
(10:30) 48-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LV 12, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.
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Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(6:10) 6-A.Cole punts 72 yards to MIA 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-M.Washington to MIA 23 for 17 yards (93-P.Johnson).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 46 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%
(4:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 58 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(3:40) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to MIA 3, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%
(11:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(7:35) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 72%
(4:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NE 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
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Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 60%
(1:28) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(14:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 23, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%
(4:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to NE 8, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
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Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 40%
(:57) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to SEA 7, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 77%
(11:53) 8-A.Borregales 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%
(9:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-33-V.Jones.
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Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:05) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 48, Center-47-J.Ashby. 22-R.Shaheed to NE 43 for 9 yards (48-N.Obiazor; 91-E.Ponder).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 45%
(11:38) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(5:53) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 65 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(3:49) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (32-D.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 47 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 13-M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (13-E.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(13:08) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NO 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 23 for 3 yards (53-T.Nowaske; 30-K.Dorsey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EPp(convert) 62%
(10:15) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
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Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:43) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 26 for 2 yards (44-I.Stalbird).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(13:47) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NO 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(12:40) 17-R.Wright punts 57 yards to DET 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 21 for 16 yards (31-J.Howden).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(9:31) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to NO 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 14 for 2 yards (17-T.Martin).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:21) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to NO 14, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 14 for no gain (17-T.Martin).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 38%
(:26) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:34) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to NO 30, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-B.Brown to NO 46 for 16 yards (30-K.Dorsey).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 52%
(13:12) 3-J.Fox punts 31 yards to NO 24, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-35-J.Bachie.
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Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%
(7:45) 10-D.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 5 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(2:35) 39-J.Bates 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 77 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 34%
(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 38 for 15 yards (4-D.Reed).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 56 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(:37) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%
(5:08) 6-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:29) 14-A.McNamara punts 45 yards to TEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-F.Mauigoa. TEN-17-C.Dike was injured during the play.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:58) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 61%
(10:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 22Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 91%
(7:29) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to TEN 19 for 3 yards (53-A.Hill; 23-K.Winston).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%
(5:06) 19-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%
(2:44) 19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 38%
(1:18) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 45Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 48%
(13:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 61Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 55%
(8:51) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 22 for 15 yards (21-M.Robinson; 44-M.Diabate).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%
(4:38) 19-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%
(1:12) 3-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 70%
(14:16) 14-A.McNamara punts 50 yards to TEN 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-C.Dike to TEN 16 for -5 yards (82-A.Smith).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to 50, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 46%
(9:46) 14-A.McNamara punts 44 yards to TEN 2, impetus ends at TEN 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(8:11) 3-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to NYJ 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 47 for 14 yards (21-M.Robinson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%
(5:05) 19-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 74Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EPp(convert) 76%
(13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to SF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-J.Cowing ran ob at SF 33 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(6:17) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(3:25) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SF 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 64%
(2:01) 15-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LA 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 43 for 11 yards (53-J.Dugger; 24-A.Davis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%
(2:54) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-J.Cowing to SF 8 for 4 yards (2-J.McCollough).
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Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 35%
(:28) 15-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
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Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(3:46) 9-M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain (92-O.Odighizuwa). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 38Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%
(9:48) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 40%
(7:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Ferguson [92-O.Odighizuwa].
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%
(3:34) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
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Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 37 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 70%
(2:00) 20-R.Rivers right tackle to SF 32 for 5 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 36-M.Sigle). ** Injury Update: LA-4-K.Mumpfield has returned to the game.
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 16Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%
(9:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:49) 8-R.Rehkow punts 51 yards to TB 19, Center-46-W.Wagner. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 32 for 13 yards (47-S.Bozeman).
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Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(:10) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 16 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%
(10:08) 2-E.McPherson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 74%
(3:46) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 6 at the 40Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%
(14:09) 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(5:23) 2-E.McPherson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%
(11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%
(8:43) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:42) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for -1 yards (18-T.Owens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 72%
(2:49) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 15 yards (56-K.Medrano).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:08) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 11 yards (58-J.Magee).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:11) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 16 for 9 yards (80-D.Cooper).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:57) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 12 yards (18-T.Owens).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%
(4:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 25%
(:45) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 2, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 64%
(13:00) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 41 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 25%
(11:20) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:55) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 44 for 11 yards (42-S.Mondon; 28-W.Shipley).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%
(6:51) 19-D.Stevens 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 16 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:52) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%
(:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%
(2:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps).
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