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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 3 at the 3
Baltimore Ravens 14 – Indianapolis Colts 6
What Actually Happened
(12:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 6-J.Lane.
The Three Options
GO
+2.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.31 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth -0.14 EP
KICK
+1.32 EP
- 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
