4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

1-0 HC Jesse Minter
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

0-1 HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

BAL
40.5%
IND
59.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (IND): +0.164 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 22 15–29
–
IND 25 18–32
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Nnamdi Madubuike DT Out Neck
Teddye Buchanan LB Out Knee
Devontez Walker WR Questionable Groin

IND

Austin Ajiake LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 41
–
IND 23

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 TD IND (10:36) 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 08:25 TD BAL (8:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – IND 6
  • Q1 04:08 TD BAL (4:08) 22-D.Henry right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – IND 6
  • Q2 07:04 TD BAL (7:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – IND 6
  • Q2 05:12 TD BAL (5:12) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – IND 6
  • Q2 02:18 TD IND (2:18) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 28 – IND 12
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 33-T.Loop 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 31 – IND 13
  • Q3 08:00 FG IND (8:00) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. BAL 31 – IND 16
  • Q4 12:50 TD BAL (12:50) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 37 – IND 16
  • Q4 10:32 TD IND (10:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 84-T.Warren for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 38 – IND 22
  • Q4 04:13 FG BAL (4:13) 33-T.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 41 – IND 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester to BAL 38 for 10 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 46-L.Rhodes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 99%

    (12:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 6-J.Lane.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 11 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester to BAL 34 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:39) 30-R.Eckley punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:59) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:57) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to IND 16, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 65%

    (8:00) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 38%

    (4:31) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-J.Downs. PENALTY on IND-33-K.Harris, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 23 for 13 yards (44-T.Chambers).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 86%

    (4:13) 33-T.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%

    (3:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at BAL 40 for -9 yards (24-M.Starks).

    See the full breakdown →