Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Baltimore Ravens 14

(2:29) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester to BAL 38 for 10 yards (95-A.Adebawore; 46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.14 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model