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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 50

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-J.Downs. PENALTY on IND-33-K.Harris, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at IND 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model