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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 38 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 33-T.Loop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model