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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 3-S.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.86 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model