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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Baltimore Ravens 41

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at BAL 40 for -9 yards (24-M.Starks).

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP