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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(:59) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.90 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP