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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 23 for 13 yards (44-T.Chambers).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model