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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 31 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to IND 16, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model