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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 30-R.Eckley punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 2-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model