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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model