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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-L.Wester to BAL 34 for 7 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.38 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 44, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model