Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 96

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(6:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to ATL 41, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to PIT 45 for 14 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).

The Three Options

GO -3.88 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.91 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 96, worth -5.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model