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Atlanta Falcons

0-1 HC Raheem Morris
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-0 HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

ATL
40.0%
PIT
60.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.038 vs Cooper Rush (ATL) -0.101 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22 15–29
–
PIT 23 16–30
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

ATL

Tua Tagovailoa QB Out Oblique
Michael Penix Jr. QB Out Knee
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Out Achilles
Cameron Williams T Out Ankle
Za'Darius Smith DE Questionable Shoulder

PIT

Joey Porter Jr. CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 13
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:34 FG PIT (8:34) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. ATL 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 01:19 TD ATL (1:19) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right to 7-Bi.Robinson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 12:31 FG PIT (12:31) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. ATL 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 10:44 TD PIT (10:44) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – PIT 12
  • Q3 01:55 FG ATL (1:55) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ATL 10 – PIT 13
  • Q4 14:16 TD PIT (14:16) (Shotgun) 13-C.Rush pass short right intended for 7-Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at ATL 35. 90-T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – PIT 19
  • Q4 10:39 FG ATL (10:39) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ATL 13 – PIT 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:58) 19-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to ATL 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to PIT 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 32 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (8:34) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 19 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:49) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to PIT 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (12:31) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%

    (7:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to PIT 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 14 for 5 yards (28-M.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:12) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to ATL 41, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to PIT 45 for 14 yards (28-R.Spears-Jennings).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 69%

    (2:38) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 44
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 49%

    (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 19-C.Johnston pass incomplete short left [28-M.Ford].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (10:58) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 20 for 7 yards (41-P.Wilson; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at ATL 19.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 49%

    (6:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 47%

    (4:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf (26-C.Henderson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 78%

    (1:55) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:13) 19-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 24 for 13 yards (44-C.Bruener).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (10:39) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 65%

    (7:04) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (4:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

    See the full breakdown →