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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model