Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model