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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 19-C.Johnston pass incomplete short left [28-M.Ford].

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.31 EP