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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.11 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model