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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) 19-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 24 for 13 yards (44-C.Bruener).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model