Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(4:49) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to PIT 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model