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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP