Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 19-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 20 for 7 yards (41-P.Wilson; 28-R.Spears-Jennings). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at ATL 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model