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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 4-D.Metcalf (26-C.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model