Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 84

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(12:16) 16-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to PIT 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 32 for 8 yards (42-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.68 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model