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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model