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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model