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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.17 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP