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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to PIT 9, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 14 for 5 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.80 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model