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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model