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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.70 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP