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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model