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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 28-T.Smack 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model