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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 63

Houston Texans 31 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model