4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
CHI Away

Chicago Bears

1-0 HC Ben Johnson
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

0-1 HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 13:00 ET Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CHI
48.3%
CAR
51.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23 16–30
–
CAR 24 17–31
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

CHI

Xavier Woods S Questionable Groin
Tyson Bagent QB Questionable Back
Rome Odunze WR Questionable Calf
Ozzy Trapilo T Questionable Knee

CAR

Patrick Jones II LB Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 59
–
CAR 37

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 49 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:40 TD CAR (11:40) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 06:03 TD CHI (6:03) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – CAR 7
  • Q1 02:03 TD CHI (2:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – CAR 7
  • Q2 14:05 TD CHI (14:05) 18-C.Williams pass deep left to 85-C.Kmet for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – CAR 7
  • Q2 12:49 TD CAR (12:49) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 18-J.Coker for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – CAR 13
  • Q2 08:51 TD CAR (8:51) 9-B.Young scrambles right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – CAR 20
  • Q2 05:24 FG CHI (5:24) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 24 – CAR 21
  • Q2 02:39 FG CAR (2:39) 10-R.Fitzgerald 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 24 – CAR 24
  • Q2 00:32 TD CHI (:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 30 – CAR 24
  • Q3 09:06 TD CAR (9:06) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-68-D.Lewis has returned to the game. CHI 31 – CAR 30
  • Q3 03:08 TD CHI (3:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 37 – CAR 31
  • Q3 00:50 TD CHI (:50) 25-K.Monangai up the middle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-97-B.Brown has returned to the game. CHI 44 – CAR 31
  • Q4 06:32 TD CHI (6:32) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 9-J.Walker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 51 – CAR 31
  • Q4 04:05 TD CAR (4:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 52 – CAR 37
  • Q4 03:47 TD CHI (3:47) 4-D.Swift right guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 58 – CAR 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:22) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CHI 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to CHI 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 44 for 23 yards (48-T.Incoom). PENALTY on CAR-84-M.Evans, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 44.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (10:35) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 21 for no gain (21-N.Scott; 97-B.Brown). (Virtual Measurement).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

    (5:24) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (2:39) 10-R.Fitzgerald 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:08) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to CAR 25, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn to CAR 42 for 17 yards (23-R.Johnson; 45-B.Gardner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 64%

    (:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan.

    See the full breakdown →