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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 79

Chicago Bears 21 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 18-C.Williams up the middle to CHI 21 for no gain (21-N.Scott; 97-B.Brown). (Virtual Measurement).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model