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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 21 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 10-R.Fitzgerald 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model