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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 24 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model