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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 21 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to CAR 22, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-81-K.Davis at CAR 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP