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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 79

Chicago Bears 31 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to CAR 25, Center-45-B.Gardner. 15-Ji.Horn to CAR 42 for 17 yards (23-R.Johnson; 45-B.Gardner).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model