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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 22

Chicago Bears 21 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-B.Gardner, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP