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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 12

Green Bay Packers 22 – Minnesota Vikings 39

What Actually Happened

(1:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.45 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model