4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 7 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Ferguson [92-O.Odighizuwa].

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model