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Thursday 2026-09-10 · 20:35
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne AU
🏟 Dome
Spread 3.5
O/U 48.5
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Neutral site — no home-field edge
- LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.239 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.177 EPA/dropback
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- SF crossing 6 time zone(s)
- LA defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
SF
26
–
LA
27
Projected margin: LA by 1
Projected total: 53
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.