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San Francisco 49ers

1-0 HC Kyle Shanahan
@
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Los Angeles Rams

0-1 HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2026-09-10 · 20:35 ET Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne AU 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

SF
42.6%
LA
57.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.239 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.177 EPA/dropback
  • SF crossing 6 time zone(s)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

SF 25 18–32
–
LA 26 19–33
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

Alfred Collins DT Out Knee
James Thompson Jr. DT Questionable Hamstring

LA

Aaron Donald DE Out Not injury related - resting player

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 27
–
LA 7

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:17 FG SF (6:17) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. SF 3 – LA 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD LA (15:00) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – LA 6
  • Q2 04:35 TD SF (4:35) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 11-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – LA 7
  • Q3 11:07 TD SF (11:07) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – LA 7
  • Q4 13:04 TD SF (13:04) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – LA 7
  • Q4 09:48 FG SF (9:48) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. SF 27 – LA 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 54 yards to SF 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-J.Cowing ran ob at SF 33 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (6:17) 18-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:25) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SF 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:01) 15-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LA 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-X.Smith to LA 43 for 11 yards (53-J.Dugger; 24-A.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (2:54) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to SF 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 4-J.Cowing to SF 8 for 4 yards (2-J.McCollough).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 35%

    (:28) 15-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (3:46) 9-M.Stafford right guard to SF 1 for no gain (92-O.Odighizuwa). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

    (9:48) 18-E.Pineiro 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 40%

    (7:58) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Ferguson [92-O.Odighizuwa].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%

    (3:34) 18-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 70%

    (2:00) 20-R.Rivers right tackle to SF 32 for 5 yards (2-D.Lenoir; 36-M.Sigle). ** Injury Update: LA-4-K.Mumpfield has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →